Drivers for past urbanization as well as possible future trends for the Manila metropolitan region were identified by evaluating past urban growth by a satellite-based evaluation. The key drivers were compromising based on a trend analysis: urbanization rates, population growth and migration patterns as well as a visual cataloguing of informal settlements. Also, spatial data from a study of households living directly on the city's main waterways were used.
In addition, a prototype of an urban growth model using SLEUTH was set up and revealed that such a model is possible for Metro Manila.
As next step, the modelling will be extended to socio-economic scenarios including data on the labour market, private companies and economic sectors, the level of social expenditure, the average household income, the employment rate, the minimum wage, labour productivity, property values and the availability of social infrastructure.